Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Quick and Dirty Market TA for 6.29.2010

Last time I did one of these, here, I speculated that we were in for a long consolidation period with 9800 as a basing area.  Since then things have more or less gone as planned, but dude, things are happening much faster than expected.  As such, I have been all over the fucking map on my trade executions.

Exorcising the past.  After making calls in CSE, STI, RCL, CSTR over the past four weeks, I have left tons of money on the table by not picking good spots on the in or out and by organically scaling like a ham-fisted cunt.  Also, by trading in the middle of the range, and breaking my own options trading rules, I managed to lose some money in GS options when the underlying performed over 6% due to decay and overnight futures jamming.  If all that weren't awesome enough, China returned some Western Financialist fuckery courtesy of UTA placing shares the very same night that I put a late afternoon trade on hoping to get some pin action from CTRP.  I have been burned by the Chinamen twice now, the first one in 2008 for a healthy sum, this time, not as much, but healthy enough to maintain a prolonged bitterness.  The distance to China is too great to overcome the greed inherent in human enterprise.  Fuck China.  Respect China, but fuck China.  And just yesterday I had a gem of a gem in DYN, as one of my trustiest patterns failed me for 5% due to an overnight sell off precipitated by ... when you figure that out, let me know.  As such, I have been mostly cash for the past couple of weeks aside from these and other strings of short term train wrecks interspersed with actionable genius.  

I await clarity before longing to hold.

Two distinct possibilities.  The first would be a continued horizontal consolidation period, taking many quarters, at least four to six.  If this be the case trading ranges are presently set.  Count on defensive dividends but range trading should be good enough to make benchmarks.

However, as discussed here, I have been fighting a growing sentiment that is very, very bearish.  Based mostly on indicators that cannot be charted, such as a mix of analyst sentiment fades, trusted bloggers, corporate patterns of behavior, and things like that, the best way to describe the basis for this sentiment would be like "tape reading" the real world.  The immediacy of time frame and inadequacy at planning by corporate leadership never fails to impress.  After accurately predicting that COF would release a bunch of reserves during the first quarter of 2010 and indicating at the time that it was a stupid fucking move, while also criticizing HD for raising their dividend, this sentiment must be trusted, but vetted thoroughly.  If this scenario shall come into play look for a close in the low 9700's and anything in the 9600's to spark implosion.  At that point nothing would be safe.

Post script.  As an indicator of just how bearish a sentiment your humble correspondent combats, know that for the past week I have been constructing a device capable of distilling water 5 gallons at a time operating only on solar power.

Good luck.