Sunday, May 23, 2010

Quick and Dirty Market TA for 5.24.2010

Below find a marked up weekly chart for the DJIA over the past 8 years.  I am still trading based on a thesis of market consolidation over a period of at least 4 to 6 quarters though if the pattern shown repeats, it could be much, much longer.  Now would be the time to allocate money into the "real world" and I feel that is exactly what the investment banks are/will be doing with their money now that more retail investors are having their tax-deferred accounts stuffed with bloated stocks.

Blue line support drawn in a range of 9800-9850, though I do not feel like that will come into play for at least a couple more months.  (How's that for a hex?)  Presently there's a bearish engulfing candle on but after such hard moves, it would be reasonable to expect some upward movement if for no other reason than that liquidity providers need to unload their holdings from the last couple of weeks.

I have boxed analogous inverted head and shoulders patterns and the right-angled descending consolidation that followed in the period from 1-26-2004 to 10-18-2004.  The pattern of the MACD does give me pause, but not as much so as if the same pattern were seen on the daily chart.

I continue to be bearish the consumer and financial names, but steadfastly, and unapologetically bullish Uranium. Uranium is the only widely used industrial metal, apart from silver, that is maddeningly undervalued given intermediate to long term supply-demand fundamentals.  While secondary suppliers (governments) around the world dump their supplies, I am reminded of the early 2000's when governments were dumping gold at 25 year lows.

Solar panels and windmills are not enough to supply the energy demands of American consumers given their well entrenched habits of leaving every light and TV on in the house, even when no one is home.  If we are to return to a more basic production/farming/exporting economy, space will ever be at a premium.

Chart below, click to enlarge, as always.