Saturday, March 16, 2013

Strong Endorsements

Khan Academy

These offerings advance human civilization.

The Path is Set

Notable syllogisms:
  • drastic reduction of public debt
  • relieves future generations
  • saves pensions funds
  • avoids further recession
  • historic and permanent rescue

Friday, March 15, 2013


This producer and creator of Jeopardy! also invented the show's iconic Double Jeopardy theme song.

Who is Merv Griffin?

I got to thinking about the nature of the markets this afternoon.  Conclusion:  The market is about pricing companies until values and the environment are right to do deals.  This lead me to understand the credit creation cycle a little more clearly and finally decide that in 2H13 deals should be coming.  I think we are entering an estuary from the rapid river of cheap money toward a more staid, buoyant interest rate era.  Like 2011 when the spectre of not extending Extended Unemployment Benefits caused a sudden drop in Joblessness, the idea of a coming interest rate rise can be the final spark that gets people off the fence to do a deal.  Whether a small business loan, a home refinance, or a leveraged resource base acquisition, ZIRP is hitting the streets, and it will not last if Bernake leaves at the end of the year.  Personnel changes obviously lead to policy discussions.

I like the idea of:
  • space
  • IPOs in general
  • bitcoin adoption
  • electronic medical records
  • legitimate takeout targets, especially a select group of junior miners
  • AAPL - to me, the products are ubiquitous like PCs still are to the desktop market
  • AMX - hard time thinking Carlos has to sell under duress if this is, indeed, a deal making env't
  • AIG - I think it's tracking for 60s, don't sweat this one until you start hearing Berkowitz's name
  • FSLR - early in the game for this trend, it's a growth stock in a strong market env't
  • JCP - see post here, I will be irate if they go to the revolver, but they're going back to what works
I feel that the case for long HLF erodes daily.  Ackman's latest comparison of HLF with recently seized Fortune Hi-Tech Marketing effectively highlights damning similarities and invites the question, "how long can the government ignore its own precedents?"  Whether the company or Icahn himself, someone wants the world to know their checkbook's open at 35.50.

I like that CAT pps is paying for its horse puckey excuses about writing off almost 600 million dollars of goodwill 6 months after closing, and that crude and refiners are coming in.  These symbolize a reasonably logical market in the case of CAT, and one that wants to support consumer behavior.  I'd also like to see the fertilizer companies come in to keep food inflation at bay long enough to let the minimum wage increase get people working again.

As discussed in A Bit of Philosophy, though I feel tail risks currently grow with positive reinforcement of a fresh decline into moral hazard, a civil response is on the map if the good guys don't win this one.

Civil war suits no one.

Thursday, March 14, 2013

Link Dump.

Renowned trading coach and book author Denise Shull suggests that one way to enhance trading performance is by coming to terms with your distractions.  For some that could be as simple as telling yourself, "it's out of my control."  Others may find that dropping everything to clear a distraction is Step 0 in the process to successful trading.

In order to transition from hotmail's unbearable new GUI to separate email hosting, a bit of spring cleaning must be conducted.  So, how about doing a link dump at 11:45 on a Thursday ahead of the largest POMO of the month on tomorrow's monthly opex?

Following are things I have read or started to read and found interesting enough to save for later.  Labels are purposed for speed and the order is descending by time.  All due respect to authors and sites linked.

Historic Collapse of Monetary System ...
Nine Financiers
The Only "How To Invest" Book Worth Reading
The Secret to Communicating Memorably
What is a CounterTrend Trade?
22 Tips for Evading Drones
How are those New Years Resolutions going?
Overcoming your Fear of Pulling the Trigger
Not So Fast (Trading Earnings Gaps Down)
Epicurean Dealmaker:  CV
Big Think Video with Annie Duke
5 Tips for being a better Leader
Learn to take a Loss
Do I need to learn to read the tape?
12 Questions for Kirk
Rumored new Energy Secretary is a Nuclear Bull
The Path of Amateurs
Top Caller Dilemma
The Starry Night over NYC
Charlie Munger on Worldly Wisdom
Yahoo, Dell, Netherlands Tax Haven
Scumbag Story Time
3 Secrets to Happy Memories
You are not consistently profitable ... YET
Eliminating Myself from the Market
Recalling the 2008 Financial Crisis
Should this trader make a comeback?
Benjamin Franklin's List
Wyckoff Stock Analysis
14 Quotes from Jim Chanos
Present Crisis Pattern
Astronomy Picture of the Day:  Saturn
Best Rags to Riches Stories
What's your Edge?
How your Buy Order gets Filled
Is the Stock Market a Rigged Game?  (see 'On Trading' at right)
The Price of Collective Trauma
Denise Shull on Tape Reading
Zeke Ashton talks Portfolio Mgmt
Jack Schwager on HF Market Wizards
Bizarre Exchange:  Buffett and Jack Welsh on CNBC
Master of the Knuckle Ball
Buy on Earnings Guidance
Tips for Sales and Trading I-views
Cato Tackles Parenting
Options Hawk: Trading Options Flow
LiquidNet CEO on Bloomberg
The Goat's Kirby Theory Explained
A Study in Global Systemic Collapse
Life Cycle of a Trade
James Altucher is a Sloppy Chip
A 2009 Post from The Goat
30 Things to Stop Doing to Yourself
Family Battle, TV Ministry
A Statistic about the Longterm Unemployed
4 Ways to get Better at Trading
Obama Signs EO to Control All US Resources
About Ramit Sethi
How AAPL Dodges Billions in Taxes
A British Writer takes on Black-Scholes
Revelations of a Trading Veteran
Pro Athletes :: Pro Traders, 7 Traits
Upside Trader's Look at Sectors
SEC Charges OptionsXpress, 5 Others for NSS
April 2012:  7 Reasons MS Bearish on Stocks
A Value Investor's Most Important Perf Measurement
Santelli Talks Bill Gross's Tweets
Bank CEO writes Anti-Wall Street Memo
OG Zerohedge:  Social Dynamics of Trade Desk
BoomBust:  Everyone Knows GS Advice Sucks?
4.5.2012 Reggie Middleton Looks at GRPN
Executives Reveal their Biggest Mistakes
Nail in the Coffin for Efficient Market Theory
Market Thoughts on Jesse Livermore
Olde Skool 'Ask James' Post
Lay Investors:  Embrace Volatility
How to Trade Directional Calendar Spreads
Life is a Gamble, Are you All In?
AMZN is the Secular Short of 2012
One Payday Lender Ruined the Industry
ECB Banker Left Speechless by Question
6 Ways to have a Better Conversation
Trimtabs Guy on Fed Manipulation, March 2012
Linda Raschke's 'Holy Grail' Scan
4 Tips on Tracking Options Volume
Dropbox Founder Simplifies the Cloud
Anti-Consultancy Consultancy
The Psychology of Human Misjudgement
The Power of Introverts
Mark Minervini Podcast Interview

Wednesday, March 13, 2013