Operant Conditioning (noun) - A process of behavior modification in which the likelihood of a specific behavior is increased or decreased through positive or negative reinforcement each time the behavior is exhibited, so that the subject comes to associate the pleasure or displeasure of the reinforcement with the behavior.
During the past 3 years traders have been party to rare levels of volatility coupled with self-reinforcing trends up and down. I do not accept that we are going to double-dip, yet. I maintain belief that the DJIA will trade a roughly horizontal range, even if that range is wider than the normal few hundred points. I believe this partly because it is the only trade that hasn't taken place for several years, and also because it'll take at least 4 to 6 quarters for a sort of post-apocalyptic stasis to manifest itself. Previously alluded value segmentation will be the primary validation of this thesis.
Dow chart below (click to enlarge) is one ugly mofo. Long term trend now clearly broken. First support 10250-10290. This one has been very important over the last 7 months and the 200 dma just so happens to join in a confluence there. If this one looks like it's not going to hold, I am prepared to book gains on some long term holdings. Second support 10050-10100, reasonable to expect capitulation-type overshoot into 4 digits if this comes into play. This support level also has a corresponding Fibonacci retrenchment area. Below these ... let's not get below these.
