Thursday, May 20, 2010

Quick and Dirty Market TA for 5.20.2010

What a wild ride, indeed.  I remain bearish on the consumer and financials, but am frustrated and getting frustrated'er by the lack of segmentation between pigs (COF, ZION, LTD) and value (DNN, LPIH, TSL).  When the trend is on, already good values will get more valuable, so we must stay patient in adding.  There will be a post in the near future about how electronic Emini trading has effectively turned the whole American equity market into an ETF that gets rebalanced nightly.  I remain steadfastly bullish on uranium producers (not explorers), and biotechs as both sectors are long overdue for M&A among other more specific reasons.
Operant Conditioning (noun) - A process of behavior modification in which the likelihood of a specific behavior is increased or decreased through positive or negative reinforcement each time the behavior is exhibited, so that the subject comes to associate the pleasure or displeasure of the reinforcement with the behavior.
During the past 3 years traders have been party to rare levels of volatility coupled with self-reinforcing trends up and down.  I do not accept that we are going to double-dip, yet.  I maintain belief that the DJIA will trade a roughly horizontal range, even if that range is wider than the normal few hundred points.  I believe this partly because it is the only trade that hasn't taken place for several years, and also because it'll take at least 4 to 6 quarters for a sort of post-apocalyptic stasis to manifest itself.  Previously alluded value segmentation will be the primary validation of this thesis.

Dow chart below (click to enlarge) is one ugly mofo.  Long term trend now clearly broken.  First support 10250-10290.  This one has been very important over the last 7 months and the 200 dma just so happens to join in a confluence there.  If this one looks like it's not going to hold, I am prepared to book gains on some long term holdings.  Second support 10050-10100, reasonable to expect capitulation-type overshoot into 4 digits if this comes into play.  This support level also has a corresponding Fibonacci retrenchment area.  Below these ... let's not get below these.