Friday, March 26, 2010

Watching for a Reversal: The FAZ Trigger

I have been watching for FAZ to make a daily candle foray into the area between 2 and 3 standard deviations of the 21 day moving average to signal a capitulation top.

This wait has brought over one calendar month (since about 2/23) of virtually unabated financial strength.

Today's daily chart, though, gives me pause as I consider the candle narrow enough to be called a "dragonfly doji."  Add to this the nice length of the lower shadow coupled with the volume slightly less than double the last 10 days' average daily volume (~63MM) and we've got cause for deep, meaningful rumination about the short term future of this market.

Here's the chart: