A Suck-Out isn't a Win

Bulls 1 - Bears 0.  The nose ring crowd bellied up to the bar when it counted today and snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, or did they?  Know without question that I am bearish and envisage the streets running red with the blood of dopes chasing price action, but frankly, wrong is wrong and when it pays to win, losing sucks.  Bitterness aside let's throw some entrails on the table and read the tea leaves.  As always, click to enlarge.

First, a SPX 60 minute 10 week chart as seen at left.  We clearly have a right angled ascending pattern with what appears to be a false break down.  In a hat tip to bulls everywhere, the closing candle got above the trend by a smidge, though volume was light, and conviction appeared weak all day.  As mentioned in yesterday's blog post, here, I still don't feel like I've seen any good selling in the last few days and fortunately for sheep bulls, sometimes the only way to unload stock is by jamming prices higher in order to induce herding instinct.

Next, let's ask our "Spirit Guide" to bring us clarity via the SPX daily chart over the last 6 months.  Heavy blue lines are support and resistance (respectively):  1067, 1102, 1122, and a fib level at 1141, which is also a two sigma Bollinger.  The light pink horizontal at 1107 denotes an unfilled gap, no matter how small, there is one between 1106.5 and 1107.  Note on this chart something that I like to Tweet frequently, "bullish TA in a bearish environment is a combustible mixture, indeed."  I see grinding against, and slight break over of a clear resistance area at 1122, as well as a 50% retracement area at 1118.  Given the facts, I believe a move to 1141 could ensue, however, without Earth shattering news, this market feels like one of those Saw movie puzzles where everyone ends up with their grapes blown off.

As a wholly unsophisticated middle American with zero appreciation for stock market skullduggery I post the the diagram shown at right, lifted from greekshares.com.  Based on my cursory observations everyone had their hula skirts and flaming batons out this afternoon, celebrating the bear hunt that occurred this morning.  So am I seeing Thrill or Euphoria after witnessing a broad market that almost went green with a 20% effective unemployment rate, the specter of numerous state defaults, and regional banks with Texas Ratios over 40 trading for $20+ per share?  I think we'll know better when 1141 comes around.

In closing, know your dojis.  I don't trust dragon flies at the top, gravestones at the bottom, or long shadows at any time.  Monday will be a circus of weekend news and maximum choppiness that hopefully falls in my favor as traders grabbed shares like douchebag kids in the skate party cash booth this afternoon.  Enjoy the weekend my sweet chums.

Cordially, and most unabashedly bearishly yours.

Quick and Dirty Market TA for 7.26.2010

In this edition of the Q&D I have divined some analysis from the SPX chart since everyone loves to talk about it so much.  As always, images can be clicked to enlarge.  Behold:

Friday's candle closed inside of an existing range, and signals a potential revisit to the lower side.  Quite a few Twitterers feel that present conditions warrant an overbought reversal, and should retrenching occur I'd be looking for support around 1065.  However, the weekend press feels quite bearish, and short covering adds the power needed to wipe out old resistances.

An aside.  The reason I prefer charting the DJI lies in the fact that the larger, lower beta components of the Dow better indicate institutional money flow, in my view.  Last Friday's candle on this index closed above two downtrends I have been charting, as well as above the 200 dma.  These in addition to its MACD which also made a decisive move off the zero line over the last 3 days of last week.

Returning to the SPX, see the blue boxed MACD making a nice series of increasingly tall bars in the histogram and with a good angle on the signal line when taking out the zero.  If the market wants higher, I feel like we need to open at or above Friday's close and put in another full bodied candle or two before back-testing the 1102 level.  The confluence of 200 dma and 2 standard deviation Bollinger indicate clear resistance at the 1113-1115 level.

Going back to the Q&D for 5.24.2010 take a look at the DJI weekly.  Presently we see a curling under of the MACD on the DJI weekly here, and a weekly close right at the 10430-ish area that marks the top of a developing resistance area.  Here again, the angle of incidence on this indicator says time to put in a weekly candle above 10434 with an objective toward 10610 over the next few weeks to months as we put in our next lower high.

Many, many stock specific charts have set up with individuals beginning to go off like bottle rockets.  For now, I've got the consolidation scanner at the top of the daily checklist, especially favoring those right angled ascending triangles like the one FNSR broke out of last week.  Props to @ldrogan and @downtowntrader for picking up on that one just days before it exploded.

Good luck.