In a matter of weeks we will have some finality out of the EU. That is, they will all adopt some form of austerity, losses will be had on bonds, and stagflation will take over arising from "dole bird" issues to go with forthcoming ECB rate cuts, and continual increases in the value of oil.
Along with European austerity, China PMI are coming in light, and though I believe there's a trade to be had on the development of a Chinese middle class, a period of digestion looms.
All of this, of course, against the backdrop of our own home-grown economic issues like declining confidence in the quality of the market, stagflation, polarizing political ideologies, lasting structural unemployment, and confidence concerns in municipal debt.
Accepting austerity and the condition of stagflation in 2 of the 5 major global economies doesn't seem like a great environment to be bulling up.
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On Trading
Truth — more precisely, an accurate understanding of reality — is the essential foundation for producing good outcomes.
- Ray Dalio, Principles
Good traders do not spend much time caring whether an institution or HFT is trying to game the system. They just decode the pattern and find ways to profit.
- Mike Bellafiore
Know where you are getting out if you are wrong. If you can answer [this], you will trade with confidence.
- Mark Fisher, The Logical Trader
The markets cannot endure even 50.01 percent bullishness before the price rises.
- Bill Williams
Whenever I have had the patience to wait for the market to arrive at what I call a “Pivotal Point” before I started to trade, I have always made money in my operations.
- Jesse Lauriston Livermore
Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend and step off before it is discredited.
- George Soros
... the numbers are the numbers. What you can argue are the qualitative perceptions of the participants, and how they're likely to act going forward.
- Kyle Bass, U. of Chicago - 3/6/2013
Misallocation ...
- Austan Goolsbee
Smart people learn from mistakes; really smart people learn from other people's mistakes, and in turn make smaller mistakes of their own.
- Mark Minervini
If your emotions are tied to whether a stock goes up or down you have already lost.
- Steven Spencer
It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.
- Charles Darwin
Agonizing over errors is a mistake, but acknowledging and studying them can be useful.
- Warren Buffett
I hated every minute of training, but I said, "Don't quit. Suffer now and live the rest of your life as a champion."
- Muhammad Ali
Every lake is different. If I were you I'd bite the bullet and hire a guide to get a jump on what works best.
- Doug the Fishing Guide
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Fractal Fathering
- Buddy, if you push hard enough, that star will go through the square opening, but generally if you have to try too hard, you're probably not doing something right.
- Start out calm and purposefully, then dial it up from there.
- Try restraint and the art of communication without drawing a defensive response.
- In pursuit of your goals, there you will find happiness.
- Tell you what Buddy, most of the problems you run into with baseball will be fixed if you keep your eye on the ball.
- The very first thing you think - don't say that.
- If you don't know what it is do not put it in your mouth.
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